Journal article
A modelling approach to estimate the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 during periods of high, low, and zero case incidence
N Golding, DJ Price, G Ryan, J McVernon, JM McCaw, FM Shearer
Elife | eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD | Published : 2023
DOI: 10.7554/eLife.78089
Abstract
Against a backdrop of widespread global transmission, a number of countries have successfully brought large outbreaks of COVID-19 under control and maintained near-elimination status. A key element of epidemic response is the tracking of disease transmissibility in near real-time. During major outbreaks, the effective reproduction number can be estimated from a time-series of case, hospitalisation or death counts. In low or zero incidence settings, knowing the potential for the virus to spread is a response priority. Absence of case data means that this potential cannot be estimated directly. We present a semi-mechanistic modelling framework that draws on time-series of both behavioural data..
View full abstractRelated Projects (2)
Grants
Awarded by Australian Research Council (NG DECRA fellowship)
Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia through its Centres of Research Excellence (SPECTRUM)
Awarded by FMS Emerging Leader Fellowship
Awarded by Australian Research Council
Funding Acknowledgements
Our analyses use surveillance data reported through the Communicable Diseases Network Australia (CDNA) as part of the nationally coordinated response to COVID-19. We thank public health staff from incident emergency operations centres in state and territory health departments, and the Australian Government Department of Health, along with state and territory public health laboratories. We thank members of CDNA for their feedback and perspectives on the results of the analyses. This work was directly funded by the Australian Government Department of Health Office of Health Protection. Additional support was provided by: the Australian Research Council (NG DECRA fellowship DE180100635); the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia through its Centres of Research Excellence (SPECTRUM, GNT1170960) and Investigator Grant Schemes (JMcV Principal Research Fellowship, GNT1117140; FMS Emerging Leader Fellowship, 2021/GNT2010051); and through a research agreement with the World Health Organisation (Health Emergency Information & Risk Assessment, Health Emergencies Programme).